Harvard School of Public Health
EH/HPM 500a -- "Risk Assessment"

Course Syllabus


Faculty --
 
John S. Evans, Sc.D.

Senior Lecturer in Environmental Health

Environmental Science and Engineering Program

Department of Environmental Health, HSPH

665 Huntington Avenue, Room 1308-C (Building I)

432-1259; jevans@hsph.harvard.edu

James K. Hammitt, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Policy and Decision Sciences

Department of Health Policy and Management

Harvard Center for Risk Analysis

718 Huntington Avenue

432-4030; jkh@hsph.harvard.edu


 

Teaching Assistants --
 
 
 
T. J. Carrothers, MS

665 Huntington Avenue, Room 1308-B (Building I)

 tcarroth@hsph.harvard.edu

Pamela Dziuban, SM

718 Huntington Avenue (Center for Risk Analysis)

 etoy@fas.harvard.edu

Both T. A.’s are doctoral students in the new joint program in Environmental Science and Risk Management,

Course Grading --
 
Class Participation  20%
4 Computer Workshop/Homeworks 40%
Final Examination 40%

Course Overview –

This course introduces the methods of risk assessment and decision analysis as used in environmental health.
 
 

Risk Assessment is a set of methods for estimating the human health risks of environmental pollution by chemicals, radiation, and other agents. It uses mathematical modeling to combine relevant information from epidemiology, laboratory animal studies, and other sources.
 
 

Decision Analysis is a method for identifying the best decision when the consequences are important and uncertain. It uses judgmental probability to represent uncertainty and utility functions to capture preferences about uncertain health and other outcomes.
 
 

Real life examples will illustrate the various methods of analysis introduced in the course. Students will participate in computer workshops where they will apply the quantitative tools learned in lectures. Two possible applications will be the risks of leukemia and breast cancer from routine medical x-rays and analysis of the key evidence supporting the recent change in ambient air quality standards. Work in the computer sections will be followed up in a connected homework assignment.


EH/HPM 240a   Risk Assessment

(NOTE: EHH500a Formerly numbered 240a)

Fall, 1997

KEY:

HO = Handed out in Class

CP = Contained in Course Packet

AD = Additional Useful Readings Not in Course Packet or Handouts

Tu Sep 16 Introduction to Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making

Required Reading: Ruckleshaus W. "Risk, Science, and Democracy," Issues in Science and Technology 1: 19-38, 1983. (HO)

Masters GM. "Hazardous Substances and Risk Analysis," Ch. 5 in Introduction to Environmental Engineering and Science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1991. (CP)

Background Reading: Hammitt JK. "Science, Data, and Risk," in Chertow MR and Esty DC (eds.). Thinking Ecologically: Building the Next Generation of Environmental Policy. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997. (CP)

Wilson R and Crouch EAC. "Risk Assessment and Comparisons: An Introduction," Science 236: 267-270, 17 April 1987. (CP)

Wilson R. "Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life," MIT Technology Review, February 1979. (CP)

Th Sep 18 Welfare Economics (Hammitt) Required Reading: Stokey E and Zeckhauser R. "The Model of Choice," Ch. 3; "Defining Preferences," Ch. 8; and "Project Evaluation: Benefit Cost Analysis," Ch. 9 in A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: WW Norton & Company, 1978. (HO) Tu Sep 23 Linear Programming (Evans) Required Reading: Stokey E and Zeckhauser R. "Linear Programming," Ch. 11 in A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: WW Norton & Company, 1978. (HO)

Forsythe GE, Malcolm MA, and Moler CB. "Numerical Integration," Ch. 5 in Computer Methods for Mathematical Computations. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1977. Sections 5.1 and 5.3 only. (NOTE: This reading is for Homework 1.) (HO)

Harrington JJ. "The Use of Systems Analysis in Environmental Engineering," (pp. 49-54 only) in Cassel J et. al., The Education and Training of Engineers for Environmental Health. Geneva: WHO, 1970. (HO)

Background Reading: de Neuville R and Stafford JH. "Systems Analysis: A Design Process," Ch. 1 in Systems Analysis for Engineers and Managers. New York: McGraw Hill, 1971. (CP)
Th Sep 25 Decision Making Under Risk (Hammitt) Required Reading: Stokey E and Zeckhauser R. "Decision Analysis," Ch. 12 in A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: WW Norton & Company, 1978. (CP) Tu Sep 30 Environmental Statistics and Exposure Assessment (Evans) Required Reading: Ott WR. "Total Human Exposure," Environmental Science and Technology. 19: 880-886, 1985. (CP)

Ott L. An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis. pp. 80-86, 100-106, 112-118, 265, 275-277, 289-291. Massachusetts: Duxbury Press, 1977. (CP)

Background Reading: Ott WR. "A Physical Explanation of the Lognormality of Pollutant Concentrations," Journal Air Waste Management Association. 40: 1378-1383, 1990. (CP)
Th Oct 2 Exposure Assessment (Evans) Required Reading: Gilbert, RO. "Characterizing Lognormal Populations," Ch. 13 in Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. New York: Van Nostrand Rheinhold, 1987. (CP) Background Reading: McKone TE, Ryan PB "Human Exposure to Chemicals through Food Chains" Environmental Science and Technology. 23: 1154-1163, 1989. (CP)

USEPA. Guidelines for Exposure Assessment, Federal Register, 57: 22887-22938, May 29, 1992. (HO)

Tu Oct 7 Fate and Transport Models (Evans) Masters GM. "Mass and Energy Transfer," Ch.1; "Mathematics of Growth," Ch.3; "Air Pollution and Meteorology," Ch. 7 pp. 300-332; and "Groundwater" Ch.4 pp. 146-158 in Introduction to Environmental Engineering and Science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1991. (CP) Background Reading: Mackay DM. "Finding Fugacity Feasible," Environmental Science and Technology, 13: 1218-1223, October 1979. (CP)

Mackay DM, Roberts PV, and Cherry JA. "Transport of Organic Contaminants in Groundwater," Environmental Science and Technology, 19: 384-392, 1985. (CP)

Travis CC and Arms AD. "Bioconcentration of Organics in Beef, Milk, and Vegetation," Environmental Science and Technology, 22: 271-274, 1988. (CP)

Hanna SR, Briggs GA, and Hosker RP. "Removal Mechanisms," Ch. 10 in Handbook on Atmospheric Diffusion. DOE/TIC-11223. US Department of Energy. 1982. (CP)

Th Oct 9 Epidemiology and Risk Assessment (Evans) Dockery DW et. al. "An Association Between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six US Cities," New England Journal of Medicine. 329: 1753-1759 (December 9), 1993. (CP)

Morris RD et. al. "Chlorination, Chlorination By-products, and Cancer: A Meta-analysis," American Journal of Public Health. 82: 955-963, 1992. (CP)

Monson RR. Occupational Epidemiology. pp. 1-12, 29-32, 67-76, 93-103. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1980. (CP)

Tu Oct 14 Cancer Risk Assessment (Evans) Anderson EL et. al. "Quantitative Approaches in Use to Assess Cancer Risk," Risk Analysis, 3: 277-295, August 1983. (CP)

USEPA. Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. April 1996. (HO)

Background Reading: Allen BC, Crump KC, Shipp AM. "Correlation Between Carcinogenic Potency of Chemicals in Animals and Humans," Risk Analysis, 8: 531-561, August 1988. (CP)
Th Oct 16 Cancer Likelihood Functions (Evans) Required Reading: To be Handed Out (HO) Background Reading: Haas CN. "Estimation of Risk Due to Low Doses of Microorganisms: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," American Journal of Epidemiology118: 573-582, 1983. (CP) Tu Oct 21 Non-Cancer Risk Assessment (Evans) Required Reading: Crump KC et. al. "A New Method for Determining Acceptable Daily Intake," Fundamentals of Applied Toxicology. 4: 854-871, 1984. (CP)

Barnes DG and Dourson M. "Reference dose (RfD): Descriptions and Use in Health Risk Assessment," Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology. 8: 471-486, 1988. (CP)

Background Reading: Barnes DG et. al. "Benchmark Dose Workshop: Criteria for Use of a Benchmark Dose to Estimate a Reference Dose," Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology. 21: 296-306, 1995. (CP)

Baird SJS et. al. "Noncencer Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach to Current Practice," Human and Ecological Risk Assessment. 2: 79-102, 1996. (CP)

Dourson ML, Knauf LA, Swartout JC. "On reference dose (RfD) and Its Underlying Toxicity Data Base," Toxicology and Industrial Health. 8: 171-189, 1992. (CP)

Dourson ML and Stara JF. "Regulatory History and Experimental Support of Uncertainty (Safety) Factors," Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 3: 224-238, 1983. (CP)

Th Oct 23 Uncertainty & Variability (Evans) Required Reading: Frey HC. "Quantitative analysis of uncertainty and variability in environmental policy making," AAAS/EPA Paper, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1992. (CP)

Cullen AS and Frey HC - Selections from Draft Manuscript of New Book. (HO)

Tu Oct 28 Propagation of Uncertainty (Evans) Required Reading: Morgan MG and Henrion M. "The Propagation and Analysis of Uncertainty," Ch. 8 in Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990. (CP) Background Reading: MacIntosh DL et. al. "A Population-Based Exposure Model for Benzene," Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology. 5: 375-403, 1995. (CP) Th Oct 30 Advanced Topics in Uncertainty: Expert Judgment and Bayes Rule (Evans) Required Reading: Morgan MG and Henrion M. "Human Judgment about Uncertainty" Ch. 6 in Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990. (CP) Background Reading: Evans JS et. al. "Use of Probabilistic Expert Judgment in Uncertainty Analysis of Carcinogenic Potency," November, 1993. (CP) Tu Nov 4 Value of Information – Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Hammitt) Required Reading: Clemen RT. "Value of Information," Ch. 12 in Making Hard Decisions. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press, 1991. (CP)

Evans JS, Hawkins NC and Graham JD. "The Value of Monitoring for Radon in the Home: A Decision Analysis," Journal Air Pollution Control Association. 38: 1380-1385, 1988. (CP)

Background Reading: North DW et. al. "Estimating the Value of Research: An Illustrative Calculation for Ingested Inorganic Arsenic." Decision Focus Incorporated. September, 1993. (CP)

Hammitt JK and Cave JAK. "Research Planning for Food Safety: A Value of Information Approach," RAND R-3946-ASPE/NCTR. Santa Monica: RAND, 1991. (CP)

Thompson KM and Evans JS. "The Value of Inproved National Exposure Information for Perchloroethylene (Perc): A Case Study for Dry Cleaners," Risk Analysis. 17: 253-271, 1997. (CP)

Lave L and Omenn G. "Information Value of Rodent Bioassay," Nature 336: 631-633, 1988. (HO)
 
 

Th Nov 6 FINAL EXAMINATION


Recommended Book for Further Reading and Reference:

Crawford-Brown, Douglas. Theoretical and Mathematical Foundations of Human Health Risk Analysis; Biophysical Theory of Environmental Health Science. Kluwer Publishing, April 1997. ISBN: 079239898x. $99.50. Library of Congress: RA566.27.C73 1997.