Risk Analysis Teaching and Learning Website
Monte Carlo Analysis Page
While some of the materials on this page refer to Should We Risk It?, you need not have the book to use it. The informal and optional "charge" for using this website is your feedback. As you use individual items, especially those that I have created, please send constructive criticism, including (but not limited to) editorial suggestions, more efficient solutions, alternate viewpoints and so on. These will be most useful to me as I argue to my department Chair, Dean, Provost, etc, that the effort I dedicate to risk education is valued by my peers. Contact information is available at the bottom of the page.
Contains lecture, tutorial and problem set
|Download an Excel file containing the data and equations for the Acme problem (7-G in Should We Risk It?). Students will need to set up the Monte Carlo part ...but no sense putting them through the onerous chore of inputting the massive equations!||Regulatory Guideance Materials|
|Many additional books and readings can be found at the Crystal Ball website.||
See pages 124, 142-151, 183, 191-193, 242-256, 260-264, 319-324.
|Burmaster, D.E and Anderson, P.D. (1994). Principles of good practice for the use of Monte Carlo techniques in human health and ecological risk assessments. Risk Analysis 14(4):447-81||Finkel, A (1995). Towards less misleading comparisons of uncertain risks: the example of aflatoxin and Alar. Environmental Health Perspectives 103(4):376-85.|
Vose, David (1997) Monte Carlo Risk Analysis Modeling in Molak, Ed., Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management.
|Thompson, K. M., D. E. Burmaster, et al. (1992). "Monte Carlo techniques for uncertainty analysis in public health risk assessments." Risk Analysis 12(1): 53-63.|
|Vose, David (2000). Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. John Wiley & Sons; ISBN: 047199765X|
Regulatory Guidance and Support Materials Available On-Line
|POLICY FOR USE OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS IN RISK ASSESSMENT at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ( May 15, 1997)||EPA Guiding Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis (pdf file)|
Report of the Workshop on Selecting Input Distributions for
Probabilistic Assessments (pdf file)
Copyright information: All materials on the RATL website are available free for use by individuals learning on their own, and for use in courses that are part of the standard catalog at accredited degree-granting institutions. I retain the rights for all materials that I have created. For all other uses, including but not limited to professional workshops and for-profit seminars, including those sponsored by accredited institutions but done outside the normal curriculum, please contact me or the contact individual listed on the materials you wish to use. In all cases, please include the attribution in your presentation.
Contact me (David M. Hassenzahl, Ph.D.)
Department of Environmental
University of Nevada, Las
Modified February 14, 2005 dmh